AVRA only claims a number once it survives one question: did it hold up under a strict statistical check?
Most fantasy tools show you a win rate. AVRA shows you the one that survives: the edge that holds up under a strict statistical check, holding back the seasons that cannot be trusted, and refusing to count anything that does not clear the bar. Here is the whole record, including the gate AVRA refused to pass.
Early accounts lock founders pricing when paid plans arrive.
What AVRA's calls did against the consensus rankings.
AVRA's edge over the consensus is still inside its verification gate. The number shows here only once it survives.
AVRA's contribution over the market is still inside its verification gate. The number shows here only once it survives.
Both numbers already have the strict statistical check applied before they reach this page. A provisional badge means AVRA cannot yet certify that check, so AVRA does not claim it.
Draft day sets the roster. Waiver claims and trades keep changing it.
AVRA's waiver edge is still inside its verification gate. The number shows here only once it survives.
AVRA's trade-evaluation edge is still inside its gate. The number shows here only once it survives.
Anyone can grade their calls after the games. AVRA freezes its verdict before kickoff.
Every pre-registered call is locked the moment it is made, with a tamper-proof timestamp that cannot be edited once the ball is in the air. The record can never be quietly cleaned up after the fact.
The wall fills as AVRA pre-registers its draft-season verdicts. Every one is locked the moment it is made, so you are watching the record being built in the open, not handed a finished highlight reel.
The number is only as good as what you do to try to break it.
AVRA applies a strict statistical check.
The edge above is smaller than the raw math would give, on purpose: AVRA discounts repeat decisions and the many looks it takes at the data, so a hot streak cannot pass itself off as skill.
AVRA shows what does not clear the bar.
AVRA also ran a Superflex lineup-construction gate. It did not survive the strict statistical check, so it is marked provisional and not claimed. A tool that only shows you its wins is hiding the rest of the table.
AVRA holds back the seasons it cannot trust.
Earlier seasons whose projections were built with information that only arrived later sit in a separate, flagged block. They never pool into the headline number, because that would quietly inflate it.
Every number passes an automated check.
The win rates, the statistical check, and even the sign of the edge are re-verified by continuous integrity gates before anything is allowed to reach this page.
AVRA grades the whole lineup, not just single calls.
Across 51,840 team-weeks in the 2025 backtest, AVRA's lineup calls reached 91.25% of the mathematically optimal lineup, against 88.78% for the public consensus, and that gap added +3.77 percentage points of championship probability across 115,200 simulated seasons.
Questions about the record
How does AVRA calculate its verified win-rate edge?
AVRA compares its changed calls against the consensus rankings, then discounts the result for repeat decisions and the many looks it takes at the data, so a hot streak cannot pass itself off as skill. The edge shown on this page is smaller than the raw math would give, on purpose, and only appears once it clears that bar.
What is the frozen-before-kickoff wall?
Every AVRA call is locked the moment it is made, with a tamper-proof timestamp that cannot be edited once the ball is in the air. The wall shows how many calls are frozen and how many are already graded, so the record cannot be quietly cleaned up after the fact.
Does AVRA only show the results that worked?
No. AVRA also ran a Superflex lineup-construction gate and it did not survive the strict statistical check, so that result is marked provisional and not claimed. A tool that only shows its wins is hiding the rest of the table.
How is AVRA's trade evaluation accuracy measured?
AVRA is graded on how often it picks the better side of a real league trade, against a coin flip's 50%, measured on the trades managers actually made and graded on what those players went on to score.
See what AVRA does for your own league.
AVRA makes the call on every lineup, trade, and waiver, in your scoring, with your roster, against your opponent. AVRA picks a side. The call is always yours to make.
Early accounts lock founders pricing when paid plans arrive.